Review: 2009 Season Predictions

Jordan Kovacs went from an afterthought to a Freshman All-American.

One of the reasons I started this blog was to record my predictions, in order to look back on them at a later date. Well, that date has come. It's a few weeks prior to the 2010 season, and I can't help but think back on how I did last year (2009 Season Predictions here). I didn't do too badly, but there were a couple surprises.

Starting Quarterback
Last year's pick: Tate Forcier. I said he'd start every game.

I should have picked . . . Forcier. He started every game.

Leading Rusher
Last year's pick: Brandon Minor. I said he'd end the season with about 900 yards.

I should have picked . . . Minor. Minor only had 502 yards, but he missed three full games (plus parts of several others) due to injuries.

Leading Receiver
Last year's pick: Greg Mathews. I said he'd catch 50 balls for 650 yards.

I should have picked . . . Roy Roundtree. Mathews only caught 29 passes as the coaching staff continues to de-emphasize outside wide receivers. The leading receiver was slot receiver Roundtree, who caught 32 balls for 434 yards.

Leading Tackler
Last year's pick: Obi Ezeh.

I should have picked . . . Steve Brown. Middle linebacker Ezeh fought through a back injury and inconsistency to finish third with 69 tackles. SAM linebacker Brown brought down 80 ballcarriers, while redshirt freshman safety Jordan Kovacs made 75 stops.

Leading Sacker
Last year's pick: Brandon Graham. I said he'd finish at 10 sacks.

I should have picked . . . Graham. The obvious choice was obvious. Graham ended the season with 10.5 sacks, or 1/2 more of a sack than I thought. Damn half sacks!

Leading Interceptor
Last year's pick: Donovan Warren. I said he'd snatch 3 errant passes.

I should have picked . . . Warren. He actually picked off 4 passes, so once again, I overestimated. If he had only picked off 3 like I told him to, then maybe he'd have stuck around for an extra year! Then again, that pick-off against Indiana really saved Michigan's ass.

All-Big Ten First Team
Last year's picks: Brandon Graham and Zoltan Mesko.

I should have picked . . . Graham, Mesko, and Donovan Warren. Graham and Mesko were voted All-Big Ten first team by the coaches. Those two plus Warren were chosen for the first team by the media. Two for three isn't bad.

Leading Scorer (non-QB, non-kicker)
Last year's pick: Brandon Minor.

I should have picked . . . Minor. He scored 8 rushing touchdowns (48 points). The next closest scorer was Carlos Brown with 5 touchdowns (30 points). Placekicker Jason Olesnavage scored 75 points, but kickers are almost always the leading scorers, which is why I didn't allow myself to pick him.

Breakout Offensive Player
Last year's pick: Junior Hemingway.

I should have picked . . . Roy Roundtree. Hemingway only caught 16 passes, while Roundtree emerged as the go-to receiver late in the season and perhaps the front-runner for the next wearer of the coveted #1 jersey.

Breakout Defensive Player
Last year's pick: Troy Woolfolk.

I should have picked . . . Jordan Kovacs. I don't feel bad about the Woolfolk pick. He made 46 tackles and I think he surprised a lot of people with his solid play at both deep safety and cornerback. Despite switching to cornerback halfway through the season, it seemed that opponents targeted Donovan Warren more often than Woolfolk. Still, Kovacs was a Freshman All-American, started eight games, and finished second on the team with 75 tackles.

Most Disappointing Offensive Player
Last year's pick: Kevin Koger. I said he wouldn't catch any more than 15 passes.

I should have picked . . . I'm not sure. Greg Mathews? Maybe Koger was the right pick. I said he'd catch 15 passes or less, and the spiteful bastard caught 16 just to piss me off. Regardless, he dropped a lot of passes in the second half of the season and got phased out of the offense a bit. It's arguable who was the most disappointing, but I'm satisfied with my pick. I think most Michigan fans expected more production from the tight end spot.

Most Disappointing Defensive Player
Last year's pick: Ryan Van Bergen. I said he'd end up with about 20 tackles and a couple sacks.

I should have picked . . . Obi Ezeh. Maybe Jonas Mouton. Those inside linebackers made a lot of Michigan fans sad. It might be a little harsh to put Ezeh here, since he had a bad back and everything. But it's one of the two. Both were benched at various points, and Mouton had the same number of tackles as cornerback Donovan Warren. That's not good. Meanwhile, Van Bergen basically doubled my predictions - he had 40 tackles and 5 sacks. Good for him.

In Summary . . .
Well, the results are a mixed bag. Out of twelve predictions, six of them were spot-on. That's 50% (I'd like to thank my 4th grade teacher for the math skills). Technically, I guess I should get a slight deduction for only picking Graham and Mesko as All-Big Ten First Team; the coaches agreed with me, but the media added Warren. That's 49%. But I think I should get a few points for Koger as Most Disappointing Offensive Player, as well as a slight bump for Woolfolk as Breakout Defensive Player. That puts me at right around 55%.

So . . . 55% of the time, I'm right every time. Perhaps I should not be trusted.

Go blue!

2010 Recruiting Grades: Slot Receiver

Two slot receivers joined the class of 2010, both of whom committed early in the process.

New England Patriot receiver Drew Dileo

The first is Drew Dileo, a 5'10", 175 lb. player from Greenwell Springs, LA. Despite not having overwhelmingly impressive offers, Dileo can fill a role at Michigan - punt returner. Since Steve Breaston left after the 2006 season, Michigan has suffered from poor to mediocre punt returning. The role was assumed by guys like Donovan Warren (who took a lot of chances), Greg Mathews (sure-handed but slow), Martavious Odoms (whose butterfingers only show on punt/kick returns), and Junior Hemingway (again, slow). Dileo can play slot receiver, but his earliest chance to contribute will probably be on special teams.

It's a good thing this photographer had a high-speed shutter.

The second commitment at slot receiver comes from D.J. Williamson, from Warren, OH. Williamson is listed at 6'1" and 172 lbs., meaning he's thin and willowy. He has state championship track speed, but unfortunately, that speed hasn't necessarily shown itself on the football field. Since his commitment, he struggled through a senior season in which he was injured and his quarterback play was subpar. He could play out wide or in the slot, but said on National Signing Day that he'll start off inside.

Predictions: Dileo reminds me of New England Patriots receiver . . . Troy Brown. He'll probably redshirt in 2010, as guys like Odoms and Jeremy Gallon could handle the punt returning duties. But at some point in his career, we'll likely see Dileo deployed as a sure-handed, occasionally exciting returner. Williamson as a slot receiver intrigues me. When he appeared to be an outside receiver in the making, I thought he would get outmuscled and I'm not impressed with his route running. He has reportedly suffered from the dropsies at times, but if he can get that problem worked out, Williamson could be a speedy Roy Roundtree in the slot working against slower linebackers and safeties. As it is, I don't see him contributing for a couple years.

Grade: B. Neither player is an immediate-impact sort, but they don't need to be with guys like Martavious Odoms, Jeremy Gallon, Terrence Robinson, and Roy Roundtree ahead of them (in addition to Teric Jones and Kelvin Grady, who could play slot). Dileo fills a hole, and Williamson has the speed to make a few big plays before all is said and done. Ultimately, this is a position/class where Rodriguez could afford to "miss" with a player or two and not suffer greatly in the future.

Ohio State 21, Michigan 10

Brandon Graham was the best player on the field.

Bullet point immediate reactions:

• Brandon Graham had a great game. He is perhaps the player from the senior class that I will miss most. He dominated his side of the line repeatedly, ending the game with a sack amongst 4 or 5 tackles for loss.
• I really thought Brandon Minor would play, but he was in street clothes. His inside running was missed in this game, as the running game was forced to play the third- and fourth-string running backs (Michael Shaw and Vincent Smith) with Carlos Brown also limited.
• Vincent Smith might be Michigan's running back of the future. He doesn't have the speed to be a game-breaker, but he gains yards consistently, runs tough for his size, and makes decisive cuts. I was wrong about him being unready to play this year.
• The defense played extremely well in this game. For the most part, Michigan didn't allow the big play. They did allow the 29-yard TD by Brandon Saine, but OSU picked on walk-on DE Will Heininger on that play.
• J.T. Floyd got picked on and was beaten a couple times. Fortunately, OSU quarterback Terrelle Pryor was horribly inaccurate on the two deep balls he threw. I still maintain that Floyd's future should be at safety, but I liked the move by the coaches to move Troy Woolfolk back to safety and re-insert Floyd at cornerback. It may not have helped Michigan significantly, but it certainly didn't hurt.
• Speaking of Pryor, I've been thinking this all season but had no reason to mention OSU sooner - why does a 6'5", 230 pound, speedy guy run like such a pansy? He runs through arm tackles, but anytime someone gets a chance to tackle him solidly, he wusses out. He either stops moving his feet and collapses into the fetal position, or he prances out of bounds. For example, when he scrambled early in the game and Steve Brown came up to pop him near the sideline, both players bounced off each other, Pryor gathered himself and had a chance to gain two more yards, and he . . . side-stepped out of bounds.
• Tate Forcier had a horrible game. Ohio State didn't do anything too confusing defensively. Forcier just made bad reads and bad throws. And that fumble on the opening offensive series was inexcuseable. Not only did Forcier retreat into his own end zone, but then he didn't tuck the ball away when he scrambled. He's been lucky all year that his lack of ball security didn't cost him more, but it showed up in the biggest game of the year.
• I liked the wrinkle where Denard Robinson started in the backfield, shifted to wide receiver, and ran a fly pattern. I did not like the facts that a) Forcier underthrew him and b) Denard was interfered with by the cornerback and it wasn't called. Denard was clearly being pushed while the ball was in the air, and it wasn't an instance where both players were jostling each other. That was a textbook interference call and the officials blew it.
• I did not like the modified pistol formation. Out of shotgun, Shaw lined up as the deep back with a fullback to either side of Forcier. It led the defense to the play each time, and Michigan didn't show a play to complement it.
• Roy Roundtree looks like he might be the next Michigan wide receiver to wear the #1 jersey.
• For the love of all that is good, can Michigan please install the sprint counter draw? It worked against Michigan for the thousandth time over the last several years, where the shotgun QB takes the snap and rolls toward the running back, who pretends to block and then takes the handoff going in the opposite direction. Ohio State, Michigan State, Oregon, and Purdue have all torched Michigan with that play, and those are just the times I can think of off the top of my head. I have never seen Michigan run that play, but it works every time against us.
• I will miss Brandon Minor, Brandon Graham, Greg Mathews, Mark Ortmann, David Moosman, and Steve Brown. All of these players are good to great college players, and it's disappointing that their careers coincided with such a huge reconstruction project for the program. They might have been here during a couple bad years, but they weren't the reasons for these two losing seasons.
• Go Blue!