Michigan State 34, Michigan 17



Michael Shaw carried 4 times for 29 yards in Saturday's loss.


Well, that was ugly.  I guess this is what it looks like when Michigan's offense gets shut down (or, in this case, shuts itself down).  I predicted an MSU victory in Friday's game preview, but I didn't think it would be a blowout.  Unfortunately, Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson reverted back to 2009 form at times on Saturday, throwing 3 interceptions and making poor reads in the running and passing games.  Here are some thoughts on yesterday's performance.

Denard Robinson was exposed . . . a little bit.  This has been kind of a problem for Robinson all year long, but yesterday Michigan State's defense took advantage of it: Denard doesn't have great ball placement.  When defenses play zone coverage, his receivers do a good job of sitting down in a hole and waiting for the ball.  In turn, Denard does a good job of throwing to those holes in the zone, too.  However, when teams play man coverage, Denard's accuracy on slants and crossing patterns is erratic.  Rather than throwing low and inside, he tends to throw the ball a) high or b) behind the receiver.  That trait was exposed on Saturday when two throws behind receivers were intercepted by trailing defenders.  In addition, another quarterback rule is "Don't throw late over the middle of the field."  Late in the game, Denard threw deep down the middle into double coverage after delaying a bit; the ball was intercepted and ended most of my hope that Michigan could pull one out.

Vincent Smith is not a short yardage running back.  He's not.  Coach Rodriguez, put someone else - anyone - in at running back on 3rd-and-1.  This is just getting ridiculous.  How many times must you fail at gaining a yard with a 5'6", 180 lb. running back before you put in somebody capable of breaking a tackle or pushing the pile?  Not only has it happened a few times this year, but Rodriguez also failed to put in a bigger, more powerful back in the 2009 Illinois game after Roy Roundtree was caught at the 1-yard line; Rodriguez left in a notoriously soft runner (Carlos Brown) instead of running Kevin Grady or Brandon Minor.  This is becoming a weekly, yearly problem.  Rodriguez obviously trusts freshman Stephen Hopkins enough to play him in a big rivalry game like this (Hopkins's two carries went for 7 and 6 yards).  He's 6'0" and 227 lbs.  Give him the ball.

Run the ball.  Michigan averaged 4.8 yards a carry, and the running backs carried 13 times for 76 yards (5.8 yards per carry).  Late in the game, I understand going away from the pass.  Until then, Michigan should run run run when it's working.

Maybe Tate Forcier should have played.  Forcier, 2009's season-long starter, was sitting on the bench.  Robinson, a potential Heisman contender, was having a bad day.  Once the game reached a point where passing the ball every play was a given, I wouldn't have minded if Forcier was inserted.  He's a more accomplished passer and has better recognition skills.  He's also 13-for-13 on the season and has some experience - and success - with late-game heroics (see: Indiana 2009, Notre Dame 2009, Michigan State 2009).  Robinson has improved greatly as a passer, but many of his passing stats can be attributed to the threat of the run.  Once defenses can sit back and play the pass almost exclusively, he's going to be behind the eight ball.  I don't think Forcier could have necessarily won the game for Michigan at that point, but he would have given the Wolverines a better chance, in my opinion.

Mike Martin is a beast.  Martin left the game late due to an illegal chop block that caused a lower leg injury.  However, before that he was making Michigan State center John Stipek look like a statue.  Martin repeatedly beat Stipek off the snap and into the A-gap of Martin's choice.  Hopefully his injury isn't too serious, because backup nose tackle Adam Patterson isn't very good at all.

Rich Rodriguez's clock management needs work. 

• At the end of the first half, Rodriguez made bad decisions.  After a run play on which the clock was left to run, Rodriguez had two timeouts but ran the ball on first down.  Instead of calling one of those timeouts immediately, he wasted precious seconds before calling the first.  Then Robinson completed a long pass down the right sideline to Martavious Odoms, leaving :03 seconds on the clock.  Really the only choice at that point was to send out Seth Broekhuizen for a field goal, which Broekhuizen made.  However, if the first timeout had been called quicker, Michigan would have had approximately :07 seconds on the clock; they could have taken a shot at the end zone and still had time to kick the field goal if that attempt failed. 
• At the end of the game, Rodriguez made another mistake.  With about 6 minutes left (if I remember correctly), Michigan was down by three scores and had a 3rd-and-19.  He called for an immediately checkdown to Michael Shaw, which gained 10 yards.  Okay, that's fine.  I understand the theory.  Get half the yards on 3rd down, and then gain the other 9 yards on 4th down, right?  Nope, after the "give up" pass to Shaw, Rodriguez sent out his punting unit.  Down three scores with six minutes left . . . and you're going to punt?  Go for the win!  What difference does it make if you fail to get a first down and MSU wins by a score of 41-17?  I'd rather have a chance to win the game than save face.

Michigan's defense isn't good enough to give up penalty yards, too.  The team only had three penalties for 35 yards on Saturday, but all three were against the defense.  Obi Ezeh and James Rogers each had a 15-yard facemask penalty, and Tony Anderson's running into the kicker penalty at the end of the game sealed the Wolverines' fate.

Michigan's secondary is S-L-O-W.  Especially once James Rogers exited the game due to cramps, holy cow . . . I've never seen a slower secondary at Michigan.  Cam Gordon had no chance to catch Edwin Baker on Baker's 61-yard touchdown run.  Rogers's replacement at cornerback, Cullen Christian, has been noted by this blog (and many others' observations) for his lack of speed; he was almost immediately beaten deep by Spartan receiver Mark Dell.  Cornerback J.T. Floyd and safety Jordan Kovacs both lack speed, too, although neither one was really exposed on Saturday.

Denard Robinson was off.  I don't know what exactly was wrong.  He seemed to be moving fine.  He just wasn't making the right reads in the passing or the running game.  It didn't seem like he was seeing holes as quickly as in previous weeks.  Some credit goes to the Spartans for getting penetration with their defensive front four, but I don't think Robinson was on top of his game.  And after throwing only one interception in the previous five weeks, he threw three today to an average MSU secondary.  It didn't help that his receivers had subpar days, either.  I thought Roy Roundtree would have a big day - and he had opportunities - but Roundtree dropped two passes, and Robinson missed him a couple times, too.  He also overthrew a wide open Darryl Stonum in the endzone in the first quarter.  The deep ball needs work.

The defense continues to be crappy.  Michigan State's quarterbacks completed 73% of their passes for 287 yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions.  The Spartans averaged 5.9 yards per carry, and running backs Edwin Baker (6.7 yards per carry) and Le'Veon Bell (11.1) were outstanding.  The good news is that since MSU likes to run the ball, Michigan has now moved up to #119 in the country against the pass (ahead of only Tulsa).  The bad news is that Michigan has dropped ten spots to #112 in overall defense (New Mexico is better) since last week, on the strength of MSU's 536 total yards.

I realize this post is quite negative, but on the heels of a blowout and three straight losses to Michigan State, I have a hard time finding positives.

Preview: Michigan State at Michigan

Michigan State freshman running back Le'Veon Bell

Rush Offense vs. Michigan State Rush Defense
Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson is currently the #1 rusher in all of college football, and the Wolverines are the #3 rushing offense in the country.  Co-starting running back Michael Shaw should return from a tweaked knee to help out fellow starter Vincent Smith in the backfield, but neither has been extremely productive this season.  Shaw picked up a good chunk of his numbers against UMass, and Smith was unspectacular until his 56-yard touchdown run last week against Indiana; aside from that outburst, he's averaging 3.78 yards per carry.  Meanwhile, Michigan State is ranked #20 against the run this season and just finished beating a run-heavy Wisconsin team.  Many media outlets suggested that MSU shut down Wisconsin's run game, but UW averaged 5.3 yards per carry throughout the contest.  While the Spartans should be the toughest run defense Michigan has seen, no team has been able to come close to shutting down Robinson and his minions in the run game.  Despite the underperforming running backs, Robinson averages 9.2 yards a carry - and that's despite missing the majority of the BGSU game due to injury.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Offense vs. Michigan State Pass Defense
It seems that a lot of people are overlooking this aspect of the matchup.  The Wolverines are the #38 passing offense in the country, while MSU lingers at #78.  With all the talent that MSU has recruited up front in the past few years, the secondary is suspect.  Tate Forcier had a subpar day for most of the 2009 game, but he finished with 223 yards and 2 touchdowns last season, including some big plays in the passing game.  If Michigan has early success in the running game, that should open up downfield throws.  Denard Robinson missed a couple streaking, wide open receivers last week against Indiana, and he'll need to capitalize on those opportunities this week.  I don't expect that Robinson will end up throwing for 400 yards or anything crazy like that, but big plays are bound to be there for the taking. 
Advantage: Michigan

Rush Defense vs. Michigan State Rush Offense
Michigan is ranked #37 in rush defense, although that statistic is a bit misleading.  With as bad as Michigan's secondary is, teams like Indiana, Notre Dame, and UConn have been content to chuck the ball all over the field.  Of those top 37 teams, Michigan allows the fourth-highest yards per carry average (3.66).  This might be where the game is won or lost.  MSU's starting running back, Edwin Baker, is averaging 7.1 yards per carry . . . and there's not much dropoff when he comes out of the game, with top backup Le'Veon Bell averaging 7.4 yards per carry.  In fact, that's not a dropoff at all.  Michigan has done a pretty good job of preventing huge runs so far this season, but teams have been able to get yards in chunks.  The difference this week might be that Baker and Bell have the ability to turn 15- or 20-yard runs into 80-yard runs.  Baker has speed that Michigan's safeties can't match, and Bell has the power to run through a lot of tackles.  Unlike previous opponents, I wouldn't be surprised to see MSU run the ball, run the ball, and run it some more.
Advantage: Michigan State

Pass Defense vs. Michigan State Pass Offense
Ugh.  Rushing the ball is probably the safer option, but if the Spartans need to pass, they'll be able to do so at will.  MSU quarterback Kirk Cousins is completing 67.5% of his passes and has a few good options to whom to throw the ball.  The only good thing is that Cousins has thrown four interceptions in his five games, so Michigan does have a chance to force some turnovers.  However, I truly believe that Michigan needs to rush four or more defenders in order to have a chance against the pass.  If the Wolverines keep rushing three, Cousins will have all day to pick apart Michigan's makeshift secondary.  Michigan is literally last in the country against the pass, and there's no reason to believe that Saturday will show any kind of significant turnaround in that area.
Advantage: Michigan State

Final Predictions

• For the second time this season, Michigan will get outgained by an opponent.
• Denard Robinson will get injured and miss time . . . again.
• We see Michigan's first trick play of the season (double pass, reverse, fake field goal, etc.).
• Roy Roundtree will have a huge game.
• Michigan State 38, Michigan 35

Poll: Who should be the backup free safety?

Freshman safety Marvin Robinson

A couple weeks ago, a poll question asked "Now that Vladimir Emilien has transferred, who should be the backup free safety?"  Here were the results out of 98 votes:

Marvin Robinson: 61%
Ray Vinopal: 34%
Brandin Hawthorne: 4%
Other: 0%

The poll winner, Marvin Robinson, is still listed as the backup to Jordan Kovacs at Bandit.  So the coaches have obviously chosen Vinopal to move up from fourth string to second string (remember, aside from the Emilien transfer, Jared Van Slyke is out for the season due to injury).

I'd like to see what Marvin Robinson can do on the football field, whether it's at Bandit or free safety.  I think he's a superior athlete to Vinopal.  However, there were some questions about Robinson's speed coming out of high school, and it probably wouldn't be a good idea to concentrate multiple linebacker/safety hybrids at the free safety position, like Robinson and Cameron Gordon.  I'm okay with Robinson staying at Bandit for this year, but I do think that Michigan should continue to look for solutions at free safety.  I don't know that a long-term answer at FS is currently on the roster.

Slightly Attractive Michigan Girl of the Week: Rima Fakih

Rima Fakih

Okay, she attended the University of Michigan-Dearborn.  That's not exactly the same as going to school in Ann Arbor, but she is Miss Michigan, so I'll give her the benefit of the doubt.

Former Michigan Athlete of the Week: Charles Woodson

Green Bay Packers cornerback Charles Woodson had a great game against the Detroit Lions on Sunday.  He finished the day with 13 tackles, 3 pass breakups, and 1 interception that was returned 48 yards for a touchdown.  The Packers won by a final of 28-26.

Honorable mention: St. Louis Rams defensive end James Hall finished with 4 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 tackle for loss, 1 pass breakup, and 1 quarterback hurry.  The Rams beat the Seattle Seahawks, 20-3.

Mailbag: Why the Roy Roundtree love?

RE: Roundtree: His lack of speed is evident. It basically cost us the Illinois game last year, and almost cost us the Indiana game this year. (Its never just about one play, but if he doesn't get caught on those plays we maybe/probably get 7 extra points that don't make these gains seem so bad) Speed and big play ability has been hailed in this blog (Shaw on O and the critiques for Gordon/Kovacs on D) but Roundtree has gotten a bit of a free pass.


Most of Roundtree's big plays are the result of Denard and scheme. He runs, untouched, thanks to the defense's attention being elsewhere. He's a good player (that ND catch to get to the goalline was the best play of his career IMO) but he's benefiting from circumstance. Odoms was pretty productive in the same role and Grady has had some big plays in the backup guy.  The slots all have a similar YPC, while Stonum, TRob, and Hemingway all have bigger YPC.


I'm not saying Roundtree should be benched, I'm just wondering why the love for Roundtree is so strong but another productive/reliable player like Smith gets killed.

First of all, let's take a look at the facts.  Lankownia says that the slots all have similar yards per catch, and a few other wide receivers have better yards per catch.  So let's see . . .

Roy Roundtree: 25 catches, 337 yards, 13.6 yards per catch, 2 touchdowns
Darryl Stonum: 15 catches, 226 yards, 15.1 yards per catch, 2 touchdowns
Martavious Odoms: 14 catches, 165 yards, 11.8 yards per catch, 0 touchdowns
Kelvin Grady: 8 catches, 105 yards, 12.1 yards per catch, 0 touchdowns
Junior Hemingway: 6 catches, 190 yards, 31.7 yards per catch, 1 touchdown
Jeremy Gallon: 2 catches, 25 yards, 12.5 yards per catch, 1 touchdown
Terrence Robinson: 1 catch, 43 yards, 43.0 yards per catch, 0 touchdowns

So if we're just talking about yards per catch, Roundtree is fourth on the team behind Terrence Robinson, Junior Hemingway, and Darryl Stonum.  Robinson only has one catch this season, so it's hard to tell how talented he is.  Surely his 43.0 yards per catch wouldn't hold up throughout an entire season.

That leaves Stonum and Hemingway as legitimately more dangerous players, right?  Sure, I guess.  But those solid numbers are also a function of their positions.  In Rich Rodriguez's offense, the outside receivers are expected to a) block, b) run intermediate routes, and c) run go routes.  It should be expected that these players will have higher yards per catch, because short routes aren't in their arsenal.  They either catch the ball downfield, or they don't catch the ball at all.

In the meantime, Roy Roundtree plays slot receiver.  Slot receiver in this offense is much like running back, because a large portion of Roundtree's catches are bubble screens, which are essentially long handoffs.  Lankownia states that Martavious Odoms was pretty productive as a slot receiver, too, but these two slot receivers don't compare.  Between 2008 and 2009, Odoms averaged 35.5 receptions, 357.5 yards, and .5 touchdowns.  In 10 career games as a slot receiver, Roundtree has 57 catches for 771 yards and 5 touchdowns.  And while Odoms only averaged 10.1 yards per reception in 2008-09, Roundtree has him beat by about 3.5 yards per catch.  That's a pretty significant difference.

Lankownia seems to be frustrated that Roundtree has been unable to score on a couple long receptions.  He had a 76-yarder against Illinois last year on which he was caught at the 1-yard line, and there was the 74-yarder against Indiana this past weekend on which Roundtree was stopped on the 2-yard line.  I have a hard time criticizing a guy whose biggest fault seems to be that his 75-ish-yard catches don't turn into 77-ish-yard catches.  Those plays would probably be remembered more fondly if Rich Rodriguez hadn't chosen noted softy Carlos Brown and 5'6" Vincent Smith, respectively, to try to punch those subsequent plays into the endzone; in case your memory is failing you right now, both Brown and Smith failed. 

Regarding Roundtree's supposed lack of speed vs. the lack of speed for Cameron Gordon and Jordan Kovacs, I don't see Roundtree's footspeed as a huge problem.  Again, when a guy is averaging 13.6 yards a catch and has the ability to make 76-yard catch-and-run plays, I'm not going to complain.  Roundtree has the necessary skills to be a very successful wide receiver, even if his speed leaves a tiny bit to be desired.  The problem with Cam Gordon and Jordan Kovacs is that their lack of speed specifically prevents them from doing their jobs.  As safeties, their jobs presumably entail preventing the other team from making big plays and scoring.  When an Indiana running back outruns you for 85 yards (Jordan Kovacs) and when a 265 lb. tight end outruns you for 95 yards (Cam Gordon), there's a problem with that.  And when both of those guys are playing in the same defensive backfield, it's a recipe for disaster.

Lankownia also says that Roundtree's production is the result of Denard's running ability.  If that's true, then why did Roundtree catch 32 passes for 434 yards and 3 touchdowns with Tate Forcier running the show last year?  Teams weren't really afraid of Forcier's running, but Roundtree still found a way to lead the team in receiving in scant playing time.

The premise for Lankownia's statement about Smithis questionable, in my opinion.  It presumes that Vincent Smith is a productive running back.  As I noted in a recent post, Smith is the 8th-best running back (by yards per carry) in the Big Ten + Notre Dame.  Those mediocre numbers are in conjunction with a Heisman candidate at quarterback and a good offensive line.  Even if Smith is the best running back Michigan has to offer - which I obviously don't believe - that doesn't mean he's productive.  Meanwhile, Roundtree consistently finds himself in open areas of the field, whether the quarterback is Tate Forcier or Denard Robinson.  I don't know what it is, but Roundtree has that "It Factor" that some guys just happen to have.  He catches the ball, makes an occasional big play, blocks well (watch Brandon Minor's TD run against Purdue in 2009), makes people miss, and most importantly, he gets open.

I can't make this clear enough, but it's worth repeating: I don't hate Vincent Smith.  I don't have a personal grudge against him.  I'm not against short backs (I loved to watch Darren Sproles when he was at Kansas State), I'm not against dreadlocks (Denard Robinson has quickly grown into one of my favorite players), and it's not about recruiting rankings (Michael Cox wasn't a highly touted recruit, either).  I quite simply believe that Smith shouldn't be getting the most carries for this team.  And while Smith has been just so-so in his two seasons, Roundtree has been somewhere between above average and spectacular.

Michigan vs. Indiana Awards

Let's see more of this guy on offense . . . Darryl Stonum as a good kick returner.  Seriously, what happened?  Stonum set a Michigan record for kick return yardage last year.  He has improved as a receiver this year, but the team is #102 in the country in kick returns this season.  It's not all Stonum's fault - the blocking hasn't been there.  But yeesh . . . as I said in yesterday's post, every unit on the team has been bad except the offense.

Let's see less of this guy on offense . . . Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson as punters.  It's not that Tate and Denard have done a bad job of punting.  But the punter position was created for a reason.  If you're allotting a scholarship for a punter, then use him.  Saturday's "surprise" punt came from Tate when Michigan was sitting in its own territory on a 4th-and-1.  Just send Hagerup out there and let him kick it.  These "surprise" punts aren't surprising when the QB lines up 8 yards behind the ball for the shotgun snap and when you run it almost every week.

Let's see more of this guy on defense . . . Jibreel Black.  He seemed to be getting a decent pass rush throughout the game, which is impressive for a freshman defensive end.  I don't think he should be the starter because I think he's a liability against the run right now, but Indiana was a good matchup for him with their 64 pass attempts.

Let's see less of this guy on defense . . . Jeremy Gallon as punt returner.  Another game, another muffed punt.  Luckily he recovered this one, but man, these punt return experiments just need to end.  I don't understand why Michigan, with all its athleticism, can't find a good punt returner.  Gallon has the running skills to be a good returner, but he doesn't judge punts or catch them well.  Drew Dileo's redshirt has already been burned, and returning punts is his forte.  Put Dileo back there, or someone else who can at least catch the ball consistently.

MVP of the Indiana game . . . Denard Robinson.  Yet again.  These really are video game numbers.  He finished 10-for-16 for 277 yards and 3 touchdowns.  He also carried the ball 19 times for 217 yards and 2 touchdowns.  And just like the Notre Dame game, he led the game-winning touchdown drive and scored the go-ahead TD.  How ridiculous is 27.7 yards per completion and 11.4 yards per carry?  Pretty ridiculous.

Michigan 42, Indiana 35




You can close your eyes and pray all you want, #46, but you're not gonna catch him.

  Yesterday's victory was at once entertaining, frustrating, and boring.  The entertainment factor was apparent: Michigan put up 574 yards and 42 points on a Big Ten team, with quarterback and Heisman frontrunner Denard Robinson accounting for 494 of those yards.  The frustration part was apparent, too: Michigan allowed 568 yards and 35 points to a perennial Big Ten cellar dweller, and Indiana held the ball for over 41 minutes.

The boring part was less obvious, but throughout the entire game, I knew Michigan was going to win this game.  I've rarely been this confident during a contest, but I feel I've reached a near level of zen when it comes to watching this Michigan team.  Michigan's offense will score loads of points as long as Denard Robinson is at the helm, and Michigan's defense sucks.  I no longer hope for competence from Michigan's defense.  They are overmatched and there's virtually no hope for them to improve this season.  Sure, they'll make a timely sack once in awhile (Mike Martin) or flash some anticipation in the secondary that results in an interception (Cam Gordon).  But ultimately, both defenses yesterday were atrocious and Michigan's offense is better.  A 7-point margin is . . . just about right.

Some praise and a few gripes . . .

Denard Robinson is awesome.  I feel like I say this in almost every post, but there's no getting around it.  He is having one of the best statistical seasons in college football history and is currently on pace to run (2,353) and throw (2,621) for 2,000 yards and account for 39 touchdowns over a 13-game season.  The easiest part of the schedule has passed, so I don't expect that Robinson will maintain his torrid pace.  Regardless, the first five starts of his career must be on par with or better than every other quarterback in NCAA history.

Michigan's defense is bad.  This was noted above, but there's no reason to expect significant improvement in the second half of the season.  I heard Michigan's official motto is "Let's hope the other team drops the ball or something."  After Saturday's game Michigan is ranked #120 (out of 120 teams) in pass defense, giving up 307.8 yards a game in the air.  Michigan is also #88 in sacks, #88 in net punting, #99 in punt returns, #102 in total defense, and #104 in kickoff returns.  Basically, Michigan is bad at everything that doesn't involve offense.  And the Wolverines haven't even played the tough part of their schedule.

Michigan's goalline offense needs rethinking.  Roy Roundtree caught a 74-yard pass that took the ball down to Indiana's 2-yard line.  On first down, Michigan lined up in the I-formation and shot a BB at Indiana's defense in the form of 5'6", 180 lb. Vincent Smith.  That didn't work.  Then Michigan lined up in the I-formation again, and the center-quarterback exchange was promptly fumbled, providing Indiana the chance to drive 99 yards for a touchdown (on which Indiana capitalized).  Rich Rodriguez has a 6'0", 211 lb. tailback (Michael Cox) and a 6'1", 227 lb. tailback (Stephen Hopkins) at his disposal.  That personnel decision makes no sense whatsoever.

Vincent Smith had a good game.  I don't think anyone has been more critical of Vincent Smith than I have.  It's not that I dislike him or think he's a horrible player, but I just think there are better options.  Against Indiana he had a 56-yard touchdown run on which he was nearly untouched.  Altogether he had 9 carries for 80 yards and the touchdown.  After five games, here's how Smith stacks up against the rest of the Big Ten's (and Notre Dame's) leading rushers, listed according to yards per carry:

1. Edwin Baker (Michigan State): 75 carries, 536 yards, 7.1 ypc, 5 TDs
2. John Clay (Wisconsin): 94 carries, 581 yards, 6.2 ypc, 6 TDs
3. Mikel Leshoure (Illinois): 77 carries, 478 yards, 6.2 ypc, 3 TDs
4. Dan Dierking (Purdue): 38 carries, 205 yards, 5.4 ypc, 2 TDs
5. Evan Royster (Penn State): 67 carries, 353 yards, 5.3 ypc, 1 TD
6. Adam Robinson (Iowa): 98 carries, 480 yards, 4.9 ypc, 6 TDs
7. Armando Allen (Notre Dame): 80 carries, 392 yards, 4.9 ypc, 2 TDs
8. Vincent Smith (Michigan): 53 carries, 252 yards, 4.8 ypc, 4 TDs
9. Dan Herron (Ohio State): 65 carries, 287 yards, 4.4 ypc, 5 TDs
10. Duane Bennett (Minnesota): 91 carries, 400 yards, 4.4 ypc, 2 TDs

11. Darius Willis (Indiana): 64 carries, 278 yards, 4.3 ypc, 3 TDs

12. Arby Fields (Northwestern): 56 carries, 160 yards, 2.9 ypc, 1 TD

For what it's worth, prior to this week Smith was averaging 3.9 yards per carry, which would have put him at #11.  Against varying levels of competition, Michael Shaw (5.6 ypc) would be #4, Stephen Hopkins (4.7 ypc) would be #9, and Michael Cox (9.3 ypc) would be #1.  So there is some statistical backing for my argument that Michigan's starting running back position needs to show some more productivity.

Indiana fans are tools.  Unless something odd happened in the stadium that wasn't caught on camera, it sure seemed like the fans in Bloomington cheered when Denard Robinson fell to the ground injured.  On the one hand, it's certainly a backhanded compliment, like "Hooray, we might have a chance to win this game if he sits out the rest of it!"  On the other - and far more important - hand, it was a classless response from the Hoosier crowd.  You don't cheer when someone gets hurt, period.

Junior Hemingway is slow but good, I guess.  Hemingway caught a slant from Denard Robinson that he turned into a 70-yard touchdown.  After he broke the cornerback's tackle and got up to full speed in the open field, I started wondering, "Did he pull a muscle?"  Nope, that's just how Hemingway runs.  It was reminiscent of Roy Roundtree's 76-yard catch against Illinois in 2009, on which Roundtree was run down by Terry Hawthorne.  Luckily, Indiana's defense isn't very fast, either.  Hemingway also made a clutch 42-yard reception near the end of regulation that set up Robinson's game-winning touchdown, and finished with 3 catches for 126 yards and 1 touchdown.

Jordan Kovacs must hate Darius Willis.  Last year Darius Willis outran Kovacs (among others) for an 85-yard touchdown.  This year Willis caught a pass in the flat, shook Kovacs on the sideline, and trotted in for a touchdown.  Kovacs is normally a sure tackler, but I have to admit, the thing that ran through my mind was "If he can't tackle and he can't run fast, why is he out there?"  That was just a fleeting thought, though, because Kovacs is probably one of the better tacklers on the team.

Roy Roundtree should get the #1 jersey next year.  Prior to the season, I predicted that Roundtree would get 60 catches and 900 yards this year.  Through five games, he's on pace for 65 catches and 876 yards, which is pretty darn close.  If he continues in this vein, then I think he deserves to wear the #1 jersey in 2011.  He's a likeable, hardworking kid, he's successful on both long and short passes, he's a willing blocker, and he has a knack for getting open.  He might not be the physical freak that Michigan is used to seeing out of its #1 wide receivers (6'3", 215 lb. guys who can jump high and run really fast), but Michigan fans couldn't ask for much more out of him.

Taylor Lewan better learn quickly.  We've been hearing for months that Lewan is a bit of a hothead.  His emotions could have cost Michigan the game on Saturday, though.  After Denard Robinson scored a touchdown to put Michigan up 41-35 with 17 seconds left in the game, Lewan was trying to get over to Robinson to celebrate.  Supposedly an Indiana player on the ground tried to trip Lewan, which resulted in an altercation and a 15-yard penalty on Lewan.  I don't care what an opponent tries to do - there's no good excuse for getting a 15-yard penalty when your team scores the potential game-winning touchdown.  If he trips you, fall to the ground, get up, and go celebrate.  What, you've never been tripped before?  Were you afraid that he ruined your pretty maize pants?  Suck it up, and think about the team first.  And while you're at it, you might want to learn how to block without holding.  On the game-winning drive, he should have been called for holding at least twice that I saw on television.

Michigan found a way to win.  Regardless of what went down from the starting whistle to the final whistle, Michigan won the game.  The offense was mostly awesome, and the defense did just enough to win.  There are definitely some things to fix or tweak, but when it comes down to it, the Wolverines' record is 5-0.  Go Blue!

Preview: Michigan at Indiana

Expect to see a lot of this: Indiana quarterback Ben Chappell picking
on Michigan's secondary.

Rush Offense vs. Indiana Rush Defense
Michigan is currently the #2 rushing offense in the country with 331.25 yards a game.  Meanwhile, Indiana has been giving up 177 yards a game to the likes of Western Kentucky, Akron, and Towson to rank #92 in the nation.  This is a bad matchup for the Hoosiers.  Despite the return of starting middle linebacker Tyler Replogle, who missed last week's game with a concussion, the Wolverines should be able to have their way.  Quarterback Denard Robinson is the leading rusher in the NCAA, and the only way Indiana should be able to stop him is by bruising his knee after a 30-yard run.  One caveat, though - there's a strong possibility that running backs Fitzgerald Toussaint (shoulder; 2 carries for 66 yards and 1 TD last week) and Michael Shaw (knee; 44 carries, 256 yards, 5 TDs this year) will miss Saturday's game.  That leaves sophomore Vincent Smith, redshirt sophomore Michael Cox, and freshman Stephen Hopkins to pick up the slack in the running back rotation.  That shouldn't matter too much, although those two missing players are big-play threats for Michigan's offense.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Offense vs. Indiana Pass Defense
Michigan's quarterbacks have only been sacked once this year, and the likelihood of Indiana's front seven catching up to Denard Robinson is low.  The Hoosiers have only mustered four sacks this season in those three games against feeble opponents.  The biggest matchup problem here is 2010 Denard Robinson vs. 2009 Denard Robinson.  If 2010 Denard Robinson keeps up his torrid pace and throws like the 16th most efficient QB in the country, then this should be a clear victory for the Wolverines once again.  I haven't seen any evidence that Robinson will regress to 2009 form, but his performance so far this season seems too good to be true.  He's bound to have a bad game at some point, but will it happen against Indiana?  Well . . . probably not.
Advantage: Michigan

Rush Defense vs. Indiana Rush Offense
The Wolverines have done a better job of limiting big runs in 2010.  With eight men consistently in the box, Michigan's run defense hasn't been great (#53 in the country, 135.25 yards a game), but big plays have been rare.  Hopefully that can remain true this week, too, because leading rusher Darius Willis (46 carries, 219 yards, 4.8 yards per carry, 2 TDs) had an 85-yard TD against Michigan in 2009, and wideout Tandon Doss had a 25-yard TD in last year's game, too.  One of the most memorable images from the 2009 season was of Willis outrunning safety Jordan Kovacs and cornerback J.T. Floyd to the endzone.  That was not a happy moment.  The only guy who had a prayer of catching Willis from behind was safety Troy Woolfolk, who's currently healing from a broken ankle.  Michigan's secondary is even a bit slower this year, as Floyd and Kovacs are back but Woolfolk's replacement is Cam Gordon, who gets outrun by 265 lb. tight ends and MAC wide receivers.  Improved play from Michigan's linebackers - as well as the eight-man front - should be able to stall Willis a little better this year, but there will be some frustrating moments.
Advantage: Indiana

Pass Defense vs. Indiana Pass Offense
This is what scares me.  Bad opponents or not, Indiana averages 304 yards a game through the air (#11 in the country).  Michigan played a couple patsies and Notre Dame, but ranks #105 in the country in pass defense (264 yards a game) and #55 in pass efficiency defense.  Indiana quarterback Ben Chappell threw for 270 yards last year, and he's supported by some good-sized receivers with decent but not great speed.  Free safety Cameron Gordon has been a liability in pass coverage, and I expect Indiana to test him repeatedly; the Hoosiers would be silly not to try.  Michigan hasn't shown the ability to shut down a decent passing game, and I don't think this is the week that they'll step up.  Michigan fans will just have to pony up and expect some big plays through the air.
Advantage: Indiana

Final Predictions

• Denard Robinson rushes for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns
• Ben Chappell increases the team's passing average by throwing for 305 yards or more
• Michigan finally gets a big play out of the return game
• My preseason upset pick will be proven wrong because . . .
• . . . Michigan will win 45-31